Has the Korea Storm Subsided?

 
Unprecedented political and diplomatic maneuvering in and around the Korean Peninsula since the beginning of 2018 have repeatedly confounded expectations, in particular, worst case fears that the peninsula was on the cusp of its most severe crisis since the Korean War.  Pyongyang, Seoul, Washington, and Beijing are engaged in repositioning that would have seemed almost unimaginable only months ago, including a summit meeting between Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-il planned for late April and the possibility of a meeting between the US and North Korean leadership in the late spring or summer. Many observers argue that these developments portend substantial movement away from the major unresolved struggle of the Cold War.
 
However, recent events raise underlying questions about perceptions, calculations, and actions in multiple capitals.  Were the growing fears of imminent war widely voiced during 2017 more theater and media hyperventilation than a genuine danger? If the dangers were real, how is it possible to explain the ability of various leaders with minimal or nonexistent direct experiences with each other to retreat abruptly from confrontational postures? Equally important, are these developments more a pause and holding pattern, rather than a larger transition to a “new normal” in Korea?
 
To understand recent events and what could transpire in the near to medium term, Jonathan Pollack will explore the dynamics at work in all four capitals, as each seeks to shape future possibilities, and the lessons learned (if any) from the past year and a half.  He will explore the principal factors contributing to the developments evident since January; the policy possibilities that could transpire in the coming weeks and months (as well as actions that could confound them); and the implications of future events for the medium and longer term.
 
Jonathan Pollack was (until January 2018) Senior Fellow in the Center of East Asia Policy Studies and the John L. Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution, where he is now Non-Resident Senior Fellow. He is the author of numerous studies on East Asian strategy and security,  including No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security (Routledge, 2011) and Endangered Order:  Revisionism and Strategic Risk in Northeast Asia, to be published by Brookings in the fall of 2018.